主题: Rationed Fertility: Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in the Child Quantity-Quality

Abstract: 

We develop a generalized theory of rationed fertility to analyze treatment effect heterogeneity in the child quantity-quality (QQ) tradeoff. An exogenous increase in fertility can either be desired---that is, a move toward optimal fertility; or undesired---that is, a move away from optimal fertility. Our theory derives a new positive rationing income effect on child quality for desired fertility increases, but a negative rationing income effect for undesired fertility increases. We explore the natural experiment of twin births and China's “One-child” policy to examine differential treatment effects between desired and undesired fertility increases. Consistent with our theoretical predictions on the rationing income effect, the estimated QQ effect for undesired fertility increases is negative, and the estimated QQ effect for desired fertility increases is positive. Our study highlights the importance of distinguishing between desired and undesired changes when evaluating social programs.

报告时间：2023年7月25日下午15:00

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嘉宾简介：

郭汝飞，武汉大学经济与管理学经理聘副教授，博士生导师，世界经济系副系主任。兴趣在于运用价格理论研究人的发展，关注生育、教育、健康、婚姻、养老、性别差异和全球化等议题。论文发表于Economic Journal, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Journal of Comparative Economics 和《经济研究》等学术期刊。获首届中国劳动经济学者论坛优秀论文奖。主持国家自然科学基金项目，担任中国经济学年会专业委员会委员和中国世界经济学会理事。